Tomasz Panek https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1034-7222 , Jan Zwierzchowski https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3355-1290

© Tomasz Panek, Jan Zwierzchowski Artykuł udostępniony na licencji CC BY-SA 4.0

ARTYKUŁ

(Angielski) PDF

STRESZCZENIE

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant disruptions to the economies and societies worldwide. The study aims to show how this pandemic affected the incidence and severity of poverty in EU countries during the first year of its course. By means of a three-level hierarchical modelling technique with panel data from the EU Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) survey for the years 2019 and 2020, determinants of poverty during this period were identified, alongside relevant macro- and microeconomic factors. The obtained results attest to multi-dimensional changes in the incidence and severity of poverty in European countries, resulting from their different economic performance, labour market conditions and policies adopted by them in response to the pandemic. In the analysed period, key factors affecting incidence and severity of poverty at individual level were the household type, household members’ educational attainment and economic status. At country level, these were: GDP per capita, income inequalities between the poor and non-poor, and residence in Northern and Western European countries. The analysis highlights the importance of considering both the incidence and depth of poverty in the process of policymaking aimed at poverty reduction. The results provide a basis for developing more effective strategies to combat poverty and reduce the adverse effects of systemic shocks on vulnerable groups within the EU. Given the critical role of both individual- and country-level determinants, policy interventions should be tailored to the specific conditions of each EU Member State.

SŁOWA KLUCZOWE

poverty, COVID-19 pandemic, household, panel analysis

JEL

C33, C44, I32

BIBLIOGRAFIA

Alkire, S., Chatterjee, M., Conconi, A., Seth, S., & Vaz, A. (2014). Poverty in Rural and Urban Areas: Direct comparisons using the global MPI 2014. Oxford Poverty & Human Development Initiative. https://ophi.org.uk/sites/default/files/2024-03/OPHI_Briefing_24_2014_%28online%29.pdf.

Almeida, F. (2021). Innovative response initiatives in the European Union to mitigate the effects of COVID-19. Journal of Enabling Technologies, 15(1), 40–52. https://doi.org/10.1108/JET-09-2020-0039.

Altiparmakis, A., Bojar, A., Brouard, S., Foucault, M., Kriesi, H., & Nadeau, R. (2021). Pandemic politics: policy evaluations of government responses to COVID-19. West European Politics, 44(5–6), 1159–1179. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2021.1930754.

Ames, B., Brown, W., Devarajan, S., & Izquierdo, A. (2001). Macroeconomic Policy and Poverty Reduction. International Monetary Fund. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/exrp/macropol/eng/.

Angrist, J. D., & Pischke, J.-S. (2009). Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist’s Companion. Princeton University Press.

Astarita, C., & Alcidi, C. (2022). Did the COVID-19 pandemic impact income distribution? (MPRA Paper No. 113851). University Library of Munich. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/113851/1/MPRA_paper_113851.pdf.

Bambra, C. (2007). Defamilisation and welfare state regimes: A cluster analysis. International Journal of Social Welfare, 16(4), 326–338. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2397.2007.00486.x.

Baptista, I., Marlier, E., Spasova, S., Pena-Casas, R., Fronteddu, B., Ghailani, D., Sabato, S., & Regazzoni, P. (2021). Social protection and inclusion policy responses to the COVID-19 crisis. An analysis of policies in 35 countries. Publications Office of the European Union.

Battistini, N., & Stoevsky, G. (2021). The impact of containment measures across sectors and countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. Economic Bulletin, (2). https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/economic-bulletin/focus/2021/html/ecb.ebbox202102_04~eef0a56145.en.html.

Bergstrom, K. (2022). The role of income inequality for poverty reduction. The World Bank Economic Review, 36(3), 583–600. https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhab026.

Blanchet, T., Chancel, L., & Gethin, A. (2019). How Unequal is Europe? Evidence from Distributional National Accounts, 1980–2017 (WID Working Papers No. 2019/06). https://wid.world/www-site/uploads/2019/03/BCG2019_fullpaper.pdf.

Bourguignon, F. (2004). The Poverty-Growth-Inequality Triangle (ICRIER Working Papers No. 125). https://www.icrier.org/pdf/wp125.pdf.

Böhnke, P. (2008). Are the poor socially integrated? The link between poverty and social support in different welfare regimes. Journal of European Social Policy, 18(2), 133–150. https://doi.org/10.1177/0958928707087590.

Burlina, C., & Rodríguez-Pose, A. (2024). Inequality, poverty, deprivation and the uneven spread of COVID-19 in Europe. Regional Studies, 58(2), 263–284. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2023.2172390.

Cantillon, B., Seeleib-Kaiser, M., & van der Veen, R. (2021). The COVID-19 crisis and policy responses by continental European welfare states. Social Policy & Administration, 55(2), 326–338. https://doi.org/10.1111/spol.12715.

Castaneda Aguilar, R. A., Dewina, R., Diaz-Bonilla, C., Edochie, I. N., Fujs, T. H. M. J., Jolliffe, D. M., Lain, J., Lakner, C., Lara Ibarra, G., Mahler, D. G., Meyer, M., Montes, J., Moreno Herrera, L. L., Mungai, R., Newhouse, D., Nguyen, M. C., Sanchez Castro, D., Schoch, M., Sousa, L. D., ... Yoshida, N. (2022). April 2022 Update to the Poverty and Inequality Platform (PIP): What’s New. The World Bank. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099422404082231105/pdf/IDU02070690808ee7044720a1e6010de398e6a75.pdf.

Corluy, V., & Vandenbroucke, F. (2017). Individual employment, household employment and risk of poverty in the EU. A decomposition analysis. In A. B. Atkinson, A.-C. Guio & E. Marlier (Eds.), Monitoring social inclusion in Europe (pp. 279–298). Publications Office of the European Union. https://ssrn.com/abstract=2981712.

Cristescu, A., Stanila, L., & Andreica, M. E. (2013). Causal Disparities of Poverty and Unemployment in the EU. Journal of Eastern Europe Research in Business & Economics, 2013, 1–12. https://doi.org/10.5171/2013.900916.

Dollar, D., & Kraay, A. (2002). Growth is Good for the Poor. Journal of Economic Growth, 7(3), 195–225. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1020139631000.

Echebarria Fernández, J. (2021). A Critical Analysis on the European Union’s Measures to Overcome the Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic. European Papers. A Journal on Law and Integration, 5(3), 1399–1423. https://www.europeanpapers.eu/en/system/files/pdf_version/EP_EF_2020_I_046_Jonatan_Echebarria_Fernandez_00437.pdf.

Esping-Andersen, G. (1990). The Three Worlds of Welfare Capitalism. Princeton University Press. https://lanekenworthy.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/reading-espingandersen1990pp9to78.pdf.

Eurofound. (2021). COVID-19: Implications for employment and working life. Publications Office of the European Union. https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2806/160624.

Eurofound. (2023). Economic and social inequalities in Europe in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. Publications Office of the European Union. https://www.eurofound.europa.eu/system/files/2023-01/ef22002en.pdf.

European Commission. (2021). The 2021 Ageing Report: Economic & Budgetary Projections for the EU Member States (2019–2070) (European Economy Institutional Paper No. 148). https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/document/download/58bcd316-a404-4e2a-8b29-49d8159dc89a_en?filename=ip148_en.pdf.

European Commission: Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion, European Social Policy Network, Baptista, I., Marlier, E., Spasova, S., Pena-Casas, R., Fronteddu, B., Ghailani, D., Sabato, S., & Regazzoni, P. (2021). Social protection and inclusion policy responses to the COVID-19 crisis – An analysis of policies in 35 countries. Publications Office of the European Union. https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2767/10153.

European Council. (2020). The EU’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/coronavirus-pandemic/.

Eurostat. (2013). Household composition, poverty and hardship across Europe (Statistical Working Papers). Publications Office of the European Union. https://doi.org/10.2785/4549.

Eurostat. (2020). Income and living conditions. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/income-and-living-conditions.

Eurostat. (2024a). Gross domestic product at market prices [dataset]. Retrieved July 10, 2024, from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/tec00001/default/table?lang=en.

Eurostat. (2024b). Unemployment rate by sex [dataset]. Retrieved July 10, 2024, from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/tesem120/default/table?lang=en.

Fana, M., Tolan, S., Torrejón, S., Urzi Brancati, C., & Fernández-Macías, E. (2020). The COVID confinement measures and EU labour markets. Publications Office of the European Union. https://doi.org/10.2760/079230.

Fusco, A., & Islam, N. (2021). Household size and poverty. In G. Rodríguez & J. A. Bishop (Eds.), Inequality, redistribution and mobility (pp. 151–177). Emerald Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1108/S1049-258520200000028006.

Gelman, A., & Hill, J. (2007). Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511790942.

Gentilini, U., Almenfi, M., Orton, I., & Dale, P. (2020). Social protection and jobs responses to COVID-19. A Real-Time Review of Country Measures. The World Bank Group. https://hdl.handle.net/10986/37186.

Goniewicz, K., Khorram-Manesh, A., Hertelendy, A. J., Goniewicz, M., Naylor, K., & Burkle Jr., F. M. (2020). Current Response and Management Decisions of the European Union to the COVID-19 Outbreak: A Review. Sustainability, 12(9), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12093838.

Hale, T., Angrist, N., Goldszmidt, R., Kira, B., Petherick, A., Phillips, T., Webster, S., Cameron- -Blake, E., Hallas, L., Majumdar, S., & Tatlow, H. (2021). A global panel database of pandemic policies (Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker). Nature Human Behaviour, 5(4), 529–538. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01079-8.

Hale, T., Petherick, A., Anania, J., de Mello, B. A., Angrist, N., Barnes, R., Boby, T., Cameron-Blake, E., Cavalieri, A., Di Folco, M., Edwards, B., Ellen, L., Elms, J., Furst, R., Green, K., Goldszmidt, R., Hallas, L., Kira, B., Luciano, M., ..., & Ren, L. (2023). Variation in government responses to COVID-19 (BSG Working Paper Series No. 2020/032). https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2023-06/BSG-WP-2020-032-v15.pdf.

Haughton, J., & Khandker, S. R. (2009). Handbook on poverty and inequality. The World Bank. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/488081468157174849/pdf/483380PUB0Pove101OFFICIAL0USE0ONLY1.pdf.

Hausman, J. A. (1978). Specification Tests in Econometrics. Econometrica, 46(6), 1251–1271. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913827.

Hox, J., Moerbeek, M., & van de Schoot, R. (2002). Multilevel analysis. Techniques and Applications. Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781410604118.

Hussain, M. A. (2022). Poverty in the five welfare regimes of Europe. In B. Greve (Ed.), De Gruyter Handbook of Contemporary Welfare States (pp. 321–341). De Gruyter. https://doi.org/10.1515/9783110721768-019.

Hümbelin, O., Hobi, L., & Fluder, R. (2022). Rich cities, poor countryside? Social structure of the poor and poverty risks in urban and rural places in an affluent country. Local Economy, 37(3), 169–193. https://doi.org/10.1177/02690942221104774.

Iacovou, M. (2017). Household structure, income poverty and subjective hardship. In A. B. Atkinson, A.-C. Guio & E. Marlier (Eds.), Monitoring social inclusion in Europe (pp. 89–102). Publications Office of the European Union. https://doi.org/10.2785/60152.

International Monetary Fund. (2020). World Economic Outlook. A Long and Difficult Ascent. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/09/30/world-economic-outlook-october-2020.

Kalinowski, S. (2020). Poverty in rural areas: An outline of the problem. Acta Scientiarum Polonorum. Oeconomia, 19(4), 69–78. https://doi.org/10.22630/ASPE.2020.19.4.42.

Kwan, C., & Walsh, C. A. (2018). Old age poverty: A scoping review of the literature. Cogent Social Sciences, 4(1), 1–21. https://doi.org/10.1080/23311886.2018.1478479.

Leyland, A. H., & Goldstein, H. (Eds.). (2001). Multilevel Modelling of Health Statistics. Wiley.

Lo Buet, M. C., & Palmisano, P. (2020). The Individual Poverty Incidence of Growth. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 82(6), 1295–1321. https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12362.

Mahler, D. G., Yonzan, N., & Lakner, C. (2022). The Impact of COVID-19 on Global Inequality and Poverty (Policy Research Working Paper No. 10198). The World Bank. https://open-knowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/54fae299-8800-585f-9f18-a42514f8d83b.

Menta, G. (2021). Poverty in the COVID-19 Era: Real-time Data Analysis on Five European Countries. In S. Bandyopadhyay (Ed.), Research on Economic Inequality: Poverty, Inequality and Shocks (vol. 29, pp. 209–247). Emerald Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1108/S1049 -258520210000029010 .

Milotay, N., Noonan, E., Chircop, D., Müller, K., Navarra, C., & Pasikowska-Schnass, M. (2022). EU welfare systems and the challenges of poverty and inequality. European Parliament. https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2022/698916/EPRS_STU(2022)698916_EN.pdf.

Nolan, B., Azzollini, L., & Breen, R. (2023). Changing Household Structures, Household Employment, and Poverty Trends in Rich Countries (INET Oxford Working Papers No. 2023-29). https://oms-inet.files.svdcdn.com/staging/files/Household-structure-and-poverty-Dec-2023.pdf.

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. (2020). OECD Employment Outlook 2020. Worker Security and the COVID-19 Crisis. OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/1686c758-en.

Panek T., & Zwierzchowski, J. (2014). Comparative Analysis of Poverty in the EU Member States and Regions. Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie. https://agathos.sgh.waw.pl/spisy/pelny_tekst/Comparative_ostateczny.pdf.

Panek, T., & Zwierzchowski, J. (2021). Economic Growth, Poverty, Inequality and Social Transfers in the European Union. SGH Publishing House. https://agathos.sgh.waw.pl/spisy/pelny_tekst/d108028.pdf.

Paraschiv, C. I. (2017). The role of education in poverty alleviation. Theoretical and Applied Economics, 24(Special), 115–134. http://store.ectap.ro/suplimente/International_Finance_and_Banking_Conference_FIBA_2017_XV.pdf.

Rajan, S., McKee, M., Hernández-Quevedo, C., Karanikolos, M., Richardson, E., Webb, E., & Cylus, J. (2022). What have European countries done to prevent the spread of COVID-19? Lessons from the COVID-19 Health system response monitor. Health Policy, 126(5), 355–361. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.healthpol.2022.03.005.

Raudenbush, S. W., & Bryk, A. S. (2002). Hierarchical linear models. Applications and Data Analysis Methods (2nd edition). Sage Publications.

Sompolska-Rzechuła, A., & Kurdyś-Kujawska, A. (2022). Assessment of the Development of Poverty in EU Countries. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 19(7), 1–18. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19073950.

Spada, A., Fiore, M., & Galati, A. (2024). The Impact of Education and Culture on Poverty Reduction: Evidence from Panel Data of European Countries. Social Indicators Research, 175(3), 927–940. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-023-03155-0.

Steenbergen, M. R., & Jones, B. S. (2002). Modelling Multilevel Data Structures. American Journal of Political Science, 46(1), 218–237. https://doi.org/10.2307/3088424.

United Nations Sustainable Development Group. (2021). United Nations Comprehensive Response to COVID-19: Saving Lives, Protecting Societies, Recovering Better. https://unsdg.un.org/sites/sites/default/files/2021-12/un-comprehensive-response-covid-19-2021.pdf.

Zenga, M. M. (2007). Inequality curve and inequality index based on the ratios between lower and upper arithmetic means. Statistica & Applicazioni, 5(1), 3–27.

Do góry
© 2019-2022 Copyright by Główny Urząd Statystyczny, pewne prawa zastrzeżone. Licencja Creative Commons Uznanie autorstwa - Na tych samych warunkach 4.0 (CC BY-SA 4.0) Creative Commons — Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International — CC BY-SA 4.0